Monday 3 November 2008
Key Trends in Globalisation has moved sites
Key Trends in Globalisation has moved sites. To go to the new site click here.
Saturday 16 August 2008
Air China
It has been four years since I last flew to China on Air China. The reason, I have to confess, is that the last time I flew the experience was not nearly as good as on British Airways or Virgin. However on my latest trip, as I was a guest of Chinese organisations, they wanted me to travel Air China and, as the experience had certainly not been unsafe, merely a little basic, I agreed.
What a transformation I discovered. There are still some improvements to be made - seats in business class still do not go completely flat, unlike BA or Virgin, but they almost do and it is perfectly possible to sleep. The Air China website is still slightly clunky compared to BA or Virgin but not really difficult to use. The standard of service was however as good as BA or Virgin, and the food, in my opinion, better. I personally would now make the choice entirely based on price and convenience of flight times - those intent on the highest quality of service in business class and first class, rather than convenience of flight time, would choose BA or Virgin but the gap has narrowed very considerably. Certainly for any significant price advantage, in any class, I would now choose Air China.
Rather intrigued by this dramatic improvement I consulted that normally least enthralling piece of reading, the inflight magazine - in this case Wings of China (August 2008). This yielded the following information.
'From 2004 onwards, Air China invested RMB 680 million ($99 million/£53 million) in revamping its luxury cabins. Now Forbidden Pavilion First Class and Capital Pavilion Business Class aboard jumbo jets are welcoming travellers, and the recently ordered A330s are to be outfitted with these new seats. The company also invested RMB 586 million ($85 million/£46 million) in enhancing its ramp vehicles including those for the disabled coming to Beijing for the Paralympics.
'In March of this year Air China moved its Beijing airport operations to Terminal 3 to utilise the world's largest airport terminal which offers a floor area of nearly 1 million sqm and a 6,000 slot car park. Other Star Alliance carriers operating into and out of the Chinese capital did likewise making "Under One Roof" a reality...
'The Olympics English Project initiated last March has prepared the frontline staff for language proficiency. Protocol training done by invited experts for the frontline staff began last April. When the 1-year countdown began on August 8, 2007 Air China came up with the slogan "Carrying the Olympics, Flying Your Dreams', expressing how proud it is to be part of the nation's effort to make a long-held dream come true. Air China has recruited 562 volunteers who are now serving the Games. 300 new flight attendants selected from around the country through a rigorous process are now on board to give passengers their winsome smiles.
'In 2007, Air China honed its operational skills through 26 Olympic test events. Over 10,000 officials, coaches and athletes flew into Beijing airport aboard nearly 12,000 flights, with over 20,000 pieces of baggage.'
This large scale investment has clearly paid off big time. Furthermore the attention paid not only to physical facilities but to staff training was extremely notable - there are, as would be expected, still occasional small difficulties with English but the courtesy and helpfulness (presumably enhanced by 'protocol training'!) was outstanding.
The movement of Air China up the value chain in four years has therefore been absolutely dramatic - with attention paid to the right things for the passenger experience.
Previously internal Chinese flights, with China Eastern, had been equal or superior to European domestic flights but Air China significantly lagged on long haul. That gap has now been closed dramatically.
I have therefore completely revised my travelling criteria for flights to China. Except for those whose criteria is the very highest polish to quality in business and first class my view is the only criteria now is price and flight times.
What a transformation I discovered. There are still some improvements to be made - seats in business class still do not go completely flat, unlike BA or Virgin, but they almost do and it is perfectly possible to sleep. The Air China website is still slightly clunky compared to BA or Virgin but not really difficult to use. The standard of service was however as good as BA or Virgin, and the food, in my opinion, better. I personally would now make the choice entirely based on price and convenience of flight times - those intent on the highest quality of service in business class and first class, rather than convenience of flight time, would choose BA or Virgin but the gap has narrowed very considerably. Certainly for any significant price advantage, in any class, I would now choose Air China.
Rather intrigued by this dramatic improvement I consulted that normally least enthralling piece of reading, the inflight magazine - in this case Wings of China (August 2008). This yielded the following information.
'From 2004 onwards, Air China invested RMB 680 million ($99 million/£53 million) in revamping its luxury cabins. Now Forbidden Pavilion First Class and Capital Pavilion Business Class aboard jumbo jets are welcoming travellers, and the recently ordered A330s are to be outfitted with these new seats. The company also invested RMB 586 million ($85 million/£46 million) in enhancing its ramp vehicles including those for the disabled coming to Beijing for the Paralympics.
'In March of this year Air China moved its Beijing airport operations to Terminal 3 to utilise the world's largest airport terminal which offers a floor area of nearly 1 million sqm and a 6,000 slot car park. Other Star Alliance carriers operating into and out of the Chinese capital did likewise making "Under One Roof" a reality...
'The Olympics English Project initiated last March has prepared the frontline staff for language proficiency. Protocol training done by invited experts for the frontline staff began last April. When the 1-year countdown began on August 8, 2007 Air China came up with the slogan "Carrying the Olympics, Flying Your Dreams', expressing how proud it is to be part of the nation's effort to make a long-held dream come true. Air China has recruited 562 volunteers who are now serving the Games. 300 new flight attendants selected from around the country through a rigorous process are now on board to give passengers their winsome smiles.
'In 2007, Air China honed its operational skills through 26 Olympic test events. Over 10,000 officials, coaches and athletes flew into Beijing airport aboard nearly 12,000 flights, with over 20,000 pieces of baggage.'
This large scale investment has clearly paid off big time. Furthermore the attention paid not only to physical facilities but to staff training was extremely notable - there are, as would be expected, still occasional small difficulties with English but the courtesy and helpfulness (presumably enhanced by 'protocol training'!) was outstanding.
The movement of Air China up the value chain in four years has therefore been absolutely dramatic - with attention paid to the right things for the passenger experience.
Previously internal Chinese flights, with China Eastern, had been equal or superior to European domestic flights but Air China significantly lagged on long haul. That gap has now been closed dramatically.
I have therefore completely revised my travelling criteria for flights to China. Except for those whose criteria is the very highest polish to quality in business and first class my view is the only criteria now is price and flight times.
Thursday 14 August 2008
Racists despair - US immigraton and population trends
One of the reasons for US economic dynamism compared to the UK and Europe has been its openness to immigration. Current immigration into the US is 1.3 million a year. This is projected to rise to two million a year by the middle of the century. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/washington/14census.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Immigration into the US has been particularly strong from Latin America and Asia - two of the most dynamic sectors of the world economy which therefore strengthens links between the US and these key economic regions as well as boosting the US population and labour force itself.
The current trend of immigration into the US is beginning to surpass the great wave at the beginning of the 20th century, when the proportion of the US population born abroad reached its peak at 15 per cent in 1910. The proportion of the population of the US born abroad is expected to rise from 12 per cent today, to 15 per cent in 2025, to 20 per cent in 2050.
Immigrants tend to be significantly younger than the existing population and have higher birthrates. The result is therefore a rapid shift in demography in the US - which it has been prepared to accept, as compared to the anti-immigrant policies adopted in the UK and some other European countries.
The gathering force of these trends is seen in the new data from the US showing that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will constitute a minority of the US population - eight years earlier than in the last such projection. By 2050 non-Hispanic whites will be only 46 per cent of the total US population. In contrast in 1900 90 per cent of the US population were non-Hispanic whites - today non-Hispanic whites constitute 66 per cent of the US population.
By 2050 the number of those in the US of Hispanic origin will nearly triple from 47 million to 133 million - resulting in their constituting 30 percent of Americans.
Those in the US of Asian origin will rise from 16 million to 41 million - an increase from five per cent to nine per cent of the total population.
The US population of those defining themselves as black is projected to increase from 41 million today to 66 million in 2050, with its percentage of the total US population rising from 13 per cent to 15 percent.
Approximately 16 million people in the US are expected to identify themselves as multiracial — a tripling in number to four percent of the population.
Taking significant landmark dates in this development non-Hispanic whites will be a minority of those under 18 by 2023, will be a minority of adults between the ages of 18 and 29 by 2028, and will be a minority of the working age population by 2039.
The New York Times noted: '“No other country has experienced such rapid racial and ethnic change,” said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a research organization in Washington.... “What’s happening now in terms of increasing diversity probably is unprecedented,” said Campbell Gibson, a retired census demographer. Several states, including California and Texas, have already reached the point where members of minorities are in the majority.'
The US has major weaknesses compared to Asian economies in terms of a level of investment that is far lower than theirs. But compared to the European economies its openness to immigration continues to constitute a great economic strength.
The contrast to the UK could not be greater. The US is undergoing the greatest wave of immigration in its history - the UK is attempting to shut its doors to immigrants. The Conservative Party has proposed that net immigration from outside the European Union should be nil - walling off the UK from China and India which are precisely the most dynamic and rapidly growing economies in the world.
The anti-immigrant rhetoric in the UK popular press, and the government and Tory Party following of it is economically suicidal - guaranteeing the country's decline.
The US may have problems but in one field, its policy on immigration, it continues to have great strength compared to the UK and Europe.
Immigration into the US has been particularly strong from Latin America and Asia - two of the most dynamic sectors of the world economy which therefore strengthens links between the US and these key economic regions as well as boosting the US population and labour force itself.
The current trend of immigration into the US is beginning to surpass the great wave at the beginning of the 20th century, when the proportion of the US population born abroad reached its peak at 15 per cent in 1910. The proportion of the population of the US born abroad is expected to rise from 12 per cent today, to 15 per cent in 2025, to 20 per cent in 2050.
Immigrants tend to be significantly younger than the existing population and have higher birthrates. The result is therefore a rapid shift in demography in the US - which it has been prepared to accept, as compared to the anti-immigrant policies adopted in the UK and some other European countries.
The gathering force of these trends is seen in the new data from the US showing that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will constitute a minority of the US population - eight years earlier than in the last such projection. By 2050 non-Hispanic whites will be only 46 per cent of the total US population. In contrast in 1900 90 per cent of the US population were non-Hispanic whites - today non-Hispanic whites constitute 66 per cent of the US population.
By 2050 the number of those in the US of Hispanic origin will nearly triple from 47 million to 133 million - resulting in their constituting 30 percent of Americans.
Those in the US of Asian origin will rise from 16 million to 41 million - an increase from five per cent to nine per cent of the total population.
The US population of those defining themselves as black is projected to increase from 41 million today to 66 million in 2050, with its percentage of the total US population rising from 13 per cent to 15 percent.
Approximately 16 million people in the US are expected to identify themselves as multiracial — a tripling in number to four percent of the population.
Taking significant landmark dates in this development non-Hispanic whites will be a minority of those under 18 by 2023, will be a minority of adults between the ages of 18 and 29 by 2028, and will be a minority of the working age population by 2039.
The New York Times noted: '“No other country has experienced such rapid racial and ethnic change,” said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a research organization in Washington.... “What’s happening now in terms of increasing diversity probably is unprecedented,” said Campbell Gibson, a retired census demographer. Several states, including California and Texas, have already reached the point where members of minorities are in the majority.'
The US has major weaknesses compared to Asian economies in terms of a level of investment that is far lower than theirs. But compared to the European economies its openness to immigration continues to constitute a great economic strength.
The contrast to the UK could not be greater. The US is undergoing the greatest wave of immigration in its history - the UK is attempting to shut its doors to immigrants. The Conservative Party has proposed that net immigration from outside the European Union should be nil - walling off the UK from China and India which are precisely the most dynamic and rapidly growing economies in the world.
The anti-immigrant rhetoric in the UK popular press, and the government and Tory Party following of it is economically suicidal - guaranteeing the country's decline.
The US may have problems but in one field, its policy on immigration, it continues to have great strength compared to the UK and Europe.
Tuesday 5 August 2008
Infrastructure investment in Beijing and London
The concentration in this blog so far, during my current visit to China, has been to give a feel of the huge drive in Chinese education. But in this field one is, however, talking of a trend. The total number of those in China who emerge with advanced educational qualifications each year already vastly outstrips Britain, and this gap will rapidly grow into a chasm, but this is due to the fact China has twenty times the UK's population. While China is setting far higher educational standards than Britain it will take some time for the average level of qualifications in urban China to overtake the UK. To bring the population that is currently in rural China, most of whom will move to the cities, up to higher educational standards than Britain will be the work of many decades.
But infrastructure can be put in place far more rapidly. The infrastructure of Asian cities such as Singapore and Hong Kong is already far ahead of Europe, the UK, and the US. It is clear that the most advanced Chinese cities are also approaching 'switchover point' - that is to their infrastructure being superior to the US and Europe.
Taking several trips around Beijing immediately prior to the Olympics confirmed just how far this process is going. Beijing is, of course, benefitting from the investment around the Olympic Games, placing it a few years ahead of other Chinese cities, but the situation is clear. The focus in this post is on the subway/tube/metro system as this is the key transport infrastructure feature of advanced cities.
Beijing opened four new subway lines, with 50 new stations, in 2008. In the last six years it has invested more than $7.69 billion (£3.35 billion) in its subway system. Given that construction costs in China are far lower than in the US or UK that figure would probably have to be doubled for an equivalent scale of investment in the US or Europe. By the middle of the next decade Beijing's will be the largest subway system in the world - overtaking New York and London. By 2015 there will be 19 lines in total and 561 km of track - compared to London's 415 km and New York's 371 km. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/olympics/2008-08/04/content_6900294.htm
After the opening of the new lines the current length of Beijing's subway system is 200km. Trains now run to both the airport and the Olympic site. Continuous improvement of the existing system is taking place with the biggest shift this year being from paper to electronic ticketing - which is essentially equivalent to London's Oyster card but which can in addition be used for taxis. Mobile phones work underground on most lines.
The Beijing authorities are explicit that their strategy in developing this system is not only efficiency but to reduce the need to use cars.
As I have travelled prevously on the old lines, which are roughly comparable in quality to the most modern parts of the London Underground such as the Victoria or Jubilee line, I therefore chose to try a new line in addition.
Ths revealed a system, at least as regards the passenger experience, clearly superior to London's Underground, New York's Subway, or Paris's Metro - transport experts are required to judge the technical capacities of the system.
The stations and trains are air conditioned and the plaforms immaculate.
Externally the trains are divided into carriages but internally there are no divisions between them - allowing passengers to walk easily from one end of the train to another.
A useful feature not found on London Underground is that platforms have an electronic information panel for passenger use that enables them to select from a number of features.
But infrastructure can be put in place far more rapidly. The infrastructure of Asian cities such as Singapore and Hong Kong is already far ahead of Europe, the UK, and the US. It is clear that the most advanced Chinese cities are also approaching 'switchover point' - that is to their infrastructure being superior to the US and Europe.
Taking several trips around Beijing immediately prior to the Olympics confirmed just how far this process is going. Beijing is, of course, benefitting from the investment around the Olympic Games, placing it a few years ahead of other Chinese cities, but the situation is clear. The focus in this post is on the subway/tube/metro system as this is the key transport infrastructure feature of advanced cities.
Beijing opened four new subway lines, with 50 new stations, in 2008. In the last six years it has invested more than $7.69 billion (£3.35 billion) in its subway system. Given that construction costs in China are far lower than in the US or UK that figure would probably have to be doubled for an equivalent scale of investment in the US or Europe. By the middle of the next decade Beijing's will be the largest subway system in the world - overtaking New York and London. By 2015 there will be 19 lines in total and 561 km of track - compared to London's 415 km and New York's 371 km. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/olympics/2008-08/04/content_6900294.htm
After the opening of the new lines the current length of Beijing's subway system is 200km. Trains now run to both the airport and the Olympic site. Continuous improvement of the existing system is taking place with the biggest shift this year being from paper to electronic ticketing - which is essentially equivalent to London's Oyster card but which can in addition be used for taxis. Mobile phones work underground on most lines.
The Beijing authorities are explicit that their strategy in developing this system is not only efficiency but to reduce the need to use cars.
As I have travelled prevously on the old lines, which are roughly comparable in quality to the most modern parts of the London Underground such as the Victoria or Jubilee line, I therefore chose to try a new line in addition.
Ths revealed a system, at least as regards the passenger experience, clearly superior to London's Underground, New York's Subway, or Paris's Metro - transport experts are required to judge the technical capacities of the system.
The stations and trains are air conditioned and the plaforms immaculate.
Externally the trains are divided into carriages but internally there are no divisions between them - allowing passengers to walk easily from one end of the train to another.
The electronic indicators inside the train are somewhat superior to those on London Underground - showing to passengers not only the direction of the train but its current position.
A useful feature not found on London Underground is that platforms have an electronic information panel for passenger use that enables them to select from a number of features.
Information that can be selected from the panel includes a plan of the bus routes that interconnect at the station and their destinations.
It is also possible to select on the panel a map of the area around the station as well as other information such as the news, computer games, sport and so on.
Taken as a whole the line threfore clearly revealed standards significantly ahead of any on London Underground.
Briefly surveying other features of Beijing's infrastructural development confirmed that this was not confined to areas serving the Olympics. A trip to the imperial Summer Palace, which is not in the area of the Olympics, revealed a road network significantly superior to anything in London or New York.
There will be a separate post on Beijing's new state of the art Capital Airport.
The situation is threfore clear. The quality of the new infrastructure in Beijing is already significantly superior to that in London. The Beijing city authorities are now pursuing a coherent strategy of attempting to create a system centred on public transport and not the car. Within 10 years it is clear Beijing will have a transport infrastructure qualitatively superior not only in scale but in quality to London - with all the advantages to the efficiency of the city this will bring. Singapore and Hong Kong levels of infrastructure development, that is the best in the world, are spreading to the largest country in the world.
That shows the scale of challenge London is facing.
Monday 4 August 2008
A truly terrifying individual
In addition to the more serious issue of considering the Chinese school timetable http://keytrendsinglobalisation.blogspot.com/2008/07/worlds-future-and-chinese-school.html
it might be worth relating an anecdote on an early trip to China that helps give insight into what is occurring in the country.
While visiting a Beijing market to buy a couple of coats the young woman selling them to me said she didn't have my size on display but did have them in storage - which would take only five minutes to get. We should therefore haggle over the price of those on display and if we agreed this she would then order the appropriate size so I could try them on. Price negotiations were successful and I had to wait five minutes.
I thought 'she speaks very good English.’ And as we had nothing else to do, decided to probe her language ability. I switched to Russian. 'Your English is very good. Do you also speak Russian?’
Reply in Russian: ‘Naturally I do. We are getting more and more Russian visitors here.’
I swapped to French .'Do you speak French?'
'Yes, Beijing is developing good relations with France. Do you speak Spanish?'
At this point I admitted defeat and mentally retreated to lick my wounds. A Mandarin, English, Russian, French and Spanish (were there more?) language speaking market trader in Beijing, not fluent but entirely adequate to do her job and to have an intelligent conversation, was a bit much to cope with.
I therefore started to watch other stalls carefully. The pattern on very many was the same. As with other markets in the world the stall holders dashed out to virtually pull you into looking at their wares, and advertised their merits in extremely exaggerated terms. But when there were no customers many were studying dictionaries and clearly learning vocabulary lists. My encounter happened to be with a particularly bright spark but she was very far from unique.
To grasp her impact it is necessary to understand other aspects of her character - again she was typical. This was no dull swot. She was very snappily dressed and clearly interested in fashion. A latest model mobile phone, with highly striking cover, had one of the attractive dongles on it which young Chinese women clearly like. She combined basic entrepreneurial skills, fashion, technology and study.
She clearly had every intention of gaining everything good in life possible and knew she would need money for it. But whereas her young contemporary working in a shop in the UK might be told to dream of it through appearing on Big Brother, or some equally stupid reality show, she was doing it through dynamism, hard work, and gaining knowledge.
It reminded me of a dinner I had with the chairman of a European PR agency in Shanghai, on one of his first trips to China, after coming back from meeting potential Chinese clients. ‘They are absolutely terrifying - very well informed, excellent business skills... and extremely well dressed.’
This is not to idealise the situation. Get away from the developing areas of Chinese cities and you are stepping back to a standard of living that is lower than anything imaginable to most people in Europe or the US. But already hundreds of millions of people are caught up in this urban Chinese development. An express train is heading towards the existing companies and societies of the US and Europe.
Deep structural and cultural parameters have already been created and will not be shifted without gigantic effort. To avoid Asia overtaking the US and Europe would require a 'cultural revolution' in the latter. It would necessitate the US and Europe undertaking a qualitative increase in the rate of investment, in the level of education, and a break with the banality of popular culture and of the value systems which block these. The culture of young people in the US and Europe would have to become like the culture of that young woman in the Beijing market.
It will not happen. That is why she was such a striking figure. In the difference between her culture, and that of her contemporaries in Europe and the US, is the story of why Asia is rising and Europe and the US relatively declining. It is why she made an indelible impression. Why, for anyone with even the slightest hint of self-congratulation and self-complacency in Europe and the US she was a truly terrifying individual.
it might be worth relating an anecdote on an early trip to China that helps give insight into what is occurring in the country.
While visiting a Beijing market to buy a couple of coats the young woman selling them to me said she didn't have my size on display but did have them in storage - which would take only five minutes to get. We should therefore haggle over the price of those on display and if we agreed this she would then order the appropriate size so I could try them on. Price negotiations were successful and I had to wait five minutes.
I thought 'she speaks very good English.’ And as we had nothing else to do, decided to probe her language ability. I switched to Russian. 'Your English is very good. Do you also speak Russian?’
Reply in Russian: ‘Naturally I do. We are getting more and more Russian visitors here.’
I swapped to French .'Do you speak French?'
'Yes, Beijing is developing good relations with France. Do you speak Spanish?'
At this point I admitted defeat and mentally retreated to lick my wounds. A Mandarin, English, Russian, French and Spanish (were there more?) language speaking market trader in Beijing, not fluent but entirely adequate to do her job and to have an intelligent conversation, was a bit much to cope with.
I therefore started to watch other stalls carefully. The pattern on very many was the same. As with other markets in the world the stall holders dashed out to virtually pull you into looking at their wares, and advertised their merits in extremely exaggerated terms. But when there were no customers many were studying dictionaries and clearly learning vocabulary lists. My encounter happened to be with a particularly bright spark but she was very far from unique.
To grasp her impact it is necessary to understand other aspects of her character - again she was typical. This was no dull swot. She was very snappily dressed and clearly interested in fashion. A latest model mobile phone, with highly striking cover, had one of the attractive dongles on it which young Chinese women clearly like. She combined basic entrepreneurial skills, fashion, technology and study.
She clearly had every intention of gaining everything good in life possible and knew she would need money for it. But whereas her young contemporary working in a shop in the UK might be told to dream of it through appearing on Big Brother, or some equally stupid reality show, she was doing it through dynamism, hard work, and gaining knowledge.
It reminded me of a dinner I had with the chairman of a European PR agency in Shanghai, on one of his first trips to China, after coming back from meeting potential Chinese clients. ‘They are absolutely terrifying - very well informed, excellent business skills... and extremely well dressed.’
This is not to idealise the situation. Get away from the developing areas of Chinese cities and you are stepping back to a standard of living that is lower than anything imaginable to most people in Europe or the US. But already hundreds of millions of people are caught up in this urban Chinese development. An express train is heading towards the existing companies and societies of the US and Europe.
Deep structural and cultural parameters have already been created and will not be shifted without gigantic effort. To avoid Asia overtaking the US and Europe would require a 'cultural revolution' in the latter. It would necessitate the US and Europe undertaking a qualitative increase in the rate of investment, in the level of education, and a break with the banality of popular culture and of the value systems which block these. The culture of young people in the US and Europe would have to become like the culture of that young woman in the Beijing market.
It will not happen. That is why she was such a striking figure. In the difference between her culture, and that of her contemporaries in Europe and the US, is the story of why Asia is rising and Europe and the US relatively declining. It is why she made an indelible impression. Why, for anyone with even the slightest hint of self-congratulation and self-complacency in Europe and the US she was a truly terrifying individual.
Sunday 3 August 2008
Chinese tourism promotion - a trip to Xi'an
A trip to Xi'an was to see the terracotta warriors. But it also yielded some useful insights into the development of China’s tourism industry.
It cannot be said that international tourism promotion is one of China's strong points, despite the fact that the government actually explicitly understands its importance – in fact it is starting from a very low base. Elementary rules continue to be ignored – to take a simple example, the final editing of English guides and other documents is still done by people whose first language is not English and presumably the same applies to other languages. The result is the wasting of large sums of money on guides and promotional material that are literally incomprehensible. As it would, doubtless, be prohibitively expensive to have all such material translated by native English speakers nevertheless the employment of a few dozen native English speaking sub-editors, to do the final editing, would be one of the most cost effective investments the Chinese tourist authorities could make and pay for itself many times over.
Similarly arrival at even the most international Chinese airports, such as Shanghai or Beijing, remains a forbidding experience for tourists compared to what is possible. There are no maps or simple printed guides immediately available for visitors, and even getting into town is not clearly explained.
All this is a huge pity as not only is the standard of the tourist attractions evidently completely outstanding (Great Wall, Forbidden City, terracotta warriors!) but the basic standard of hotels is good in their different price ranges – the main problem being that as you go down in price European breakfasts deteriorate (but when did you last cook a Chinese one?). As I know I am far from unique in relishing Chinese lunch and dinner, but not being able to deal early in the morning with the very different Chinese breakfast, this is an issue. But cleanliness, good facilities, and security can be obtained at different points in the price range and, provided measures are taken to anticipate the breakfast issue, a holiday in China therefore need not be prohibitively expensive nor need it be confined to business traveller quality hotels.
The quality of information at some of the cultural treasure of China is also of very high quality – Shanghai museum, in partcular, must be one of the best in the world. The problem is that the whole is not bound together into a coherent leisure visitor experience. Marketing and promotion also remains very weak – there is nothing remotely matching the excellence of the ‘Incredible India’ promotional campaign.
Arriving in Xi’an was therefore a pleasant experience. Xi’an is destined to be one of the world’s most important tourist destinations – one on a level equivalent to Rome for example. Not only does it have the terracotta warriors but, as the capital of China for over a thousand years, it has in the more than 10km long intact city wall, Han dynasty tombs, and quite incredible art in the city museum cultural sites and tourist attractions that match those anywhere. The fact that it is the centre of China’s satellite control system, and was previously a city dominated by military industry, might make the Chinese authorities nervous about opening it up to the scale of tourism that is possible but no signs of this were seen on this visit.
Given the problems already described for Shanghai and Beijing imagine the pleasure, both personal and in terms of professional interest, in immediately being handed a city map and guide on exiting from the baggage claim. Clear, succinct and in comprehensible English whoever prepared it deserves high marks. It immediately made the city more comprehensible for the visitor. A bit of investigation showed there to be a reasonable range of hotels at different points in the price spectrum with the breakfast problem being reasonably solved quite far down the price range.
Of course very many detailed problems remained in some areas of the city. The presentation of the terracotta warriors themselves was on a high level but the huge tourist market after leaving the site, selling completely trashy souvenirs, is a disgrace to one of the most important cultural sites in the world, and therefore to the national dignity of China, and should be demolished. But someone in Xi’an was getting their act together to begin to present the city as a coherent visitor experience. Given the incredible quality of the product (who wouldn’t want to work with one of the greatest cultural centres in the world?) my professional mouth simply watered at the thought of working out a coherent promotional strategy for Xi’an! But clear progress is being made and on the basis of this visit cities such as Beijing and Shanghai would be well advised to draw some lessons from what is beginning to happen in Xi’an
It cannot be said that international tourism promotion is one of China's strong points, despite the fact that the government actually explicitly understands its importance – in fact it is starting from a very low base. Elementary rules continue to be ignored – to take a simple example, the final editing of English guides and other documents is still done by people whose first language is not English and presumably the same applies to other languages. The result is the wasting of large sums of money on guides and promotional material that are literally incomprehensible. As it would, doubtless, be prohibitively expensive to have all such material translated by native English speakers nevertheless the employment of a few dozen native English speaking sub-editors, to do the final editing, would be one of the most cost effective investments the Chinese tourist authorities could make and pay for itself many times over.
Similarly arrival at even the most international Chinese airports, such as Shanghai or Beijing, remains a forbidding experience for tourists compared to what is possible. There are no maps or simple printed guides immediately available for visitors, and even getting into town is not clearly explained.
All this is a huge pity as not only is the standard of the tourist attractions evidently completely outstanding (Great Wall, Forbidden City, terracotta warriors!) but the basic standard of hotels is good in their different price ranges – the main problem being that as you go down in price European breakfasts deteriorate (but when did you last cook a Chinese one?). As I know I am far from unique in relishing Chinese lunch and dinner, but not being able to deal early in the morning with the very different Chinese breakfast, this is an issue. But cleanliness, good facilities, and security can be obtained at different points in the price range and, provided measures are taken to anticipate the breakfast issue, a holiday in China therefore need not be prohibitively expensive nor need it be confined to business traveller quality hotels.
The quality of information at some of the cultural treasure of China is also of very high quality – Shanghai museum, in partcular, must be one of the best in the world. The problem is that the whole is not bound together into a coherent leisure visitor experience. Marketing and promotion also remains very weak – there is nothing remotely matching the excellence of the ‘Incredible India’ promotional campaign.
Arriving in Xi’an was therefore a pleasant experience. Xi’an is destined to be one of the world’s most important tourist destinations – one on a level equivalent to Rome for example. Not only does it have the terracotta warriors but, as the capital of China for over a thousand years, it has in the more than 10km long intact city wall, Han dynasty tombs, and quite incredible art in the city museum cultural sites and tourist attractions that match those anywhere. The fact that it is the centre of China’s satellite control system, and was previously a city dominated by military industry, might make the Chinese authorities nervous about opening it up to the scale of tourism that is possible but no signs of this were seen on this visit.
Given the problems already described for Shanghai and Beijing imagine the pleasure, both personal and in terms of professional interest, in immediately being handed a city map and guide on exiting from the baggage claim. Clear, succinct and in comprehensible English whoever prepared it deserves high marks. It immediately made the city more comprehensible for the visitor. A bit of investigation showed there to be a reasonable range of hotels at different points in the price spectrum with the breakfast problem being reasonably solved quite far down the price range.
Of course very many detailed problems remained in some areas of the city. The presentation of the terracotta warriors themselves was on a high level but the huge tourist market after leaving the site, selling completely trashy souvenirs, is a disgrace to one of the most important cultural sites in the world, and therefore to the national dignity of China, and should be demolished. But someone in Xi’an was getting their act together to begin to present the city as a coherent visitor experience. Given the incredible quality of the product (who wouldn’t want to work with one of the greatest cultural centres in the world?) my professional mouth simply watered at the thought of working out a coherent promotional strategy for Xi’an! But clear progress is being made and on the basis of this visit cities such as Beijing and Shanghai would be well advised to draw some lessons from what is beginning to happen in Xi’an
The world's future and the Chinese school timetable
The most important rule about finding out about a foreign country is to get as far away as possible from hotels, and business and government offices, and find out how people live. The ideal is to get into the homes of as many different types of ordinary people as possible, but that is normally difficult and takes some time, and more partial steps may have to be taken. Therefore, every possible opportunity has to be used to acquire such knowledge.
A three week trip to China, to speak on the development of Shanghai as an international financial centre and to be a guest at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, therefore yielded further useful opportunities. Most useful of all turned out to be a discussion with a 17 year old regarding his school timetable – not one in a super-elite institution but from a somewhat better than normal, but not in no way wholly untypical, school in Beijing. A cross check with a 14 year old in Xi'an revealed basically the same pattern.
It must be stressed for China that these are city schools, and a rural one would reveal a substantially different pattern. But China's cities already contain hundreds of millions of people and the number will rise over several decades towards one billion. The daily timetable was the following - the ten minute gaps between lessons are break periods.
7.00 - 8.00 Exercise and private study
8.00 - 8.45 Lesson 1
8.55 - 9.40 Lesson 2
9.40 - 10.00 Break and discussion with teacher
10.00 - 10.20 Exercise
10.20 - 11.05 Lesson 3
11.15 - 12.00 Lesson 4
12.00 - 1.30 Lunch and break
1.30 - 2.15 Lesson 5
2.25 - 3.10 Lesson 6
3.20 - 4.05 Lesson 7
4.05 - 4.30 Exercise
4.30 - 5.30 Private study
6.00 - 9.00 Homework
Multiply that timetable in the future by several hundred million children, compare it to the far less intense educational ethic and drive in the US and Europe, and you already see why European and US societies have no chance in their competition with Asia. Average educational levels are already well above US and European standards in South Korea and Singapore. The contemporary Asian work and educational ethic is so superior to the average in Europe and the US that the relative decline of the later compared to Asia is already inevitable - even if it will take several decades for its full consequences to work through. The strength of Asia's key economies lies not simply in the fact that China invests over 40 per cent of its GDP, compared to under 20 per cent for the US and UK, but in the educational standards that are being set to complement that investment.
Of course China is starting, as regards the mass of the population, from a hugely lower base than the US and Europe - even if the standard statement remains that the Chinese primary school is the best run institution in the country. To take several hundred million Chinese children up to the educational level now seen in Singapore or South Korea is a work of very many decades. But the dynamic is already clear. The trajectory set for Chinese education is at a far higher level than that for the US or Europe.
In that child's school timetable, and its comparison to the US or UK, is the future of the world.
A three week trip to China, to speak on the development of Shanghai as an international financial centre and to be a guest at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, therefore yielded further useful opportunities. Most useful of all turned out to be a discussion with a 17 year old regarding his school timetable – not one in a super-elite institution but from a somewhat better than normal, but not in no way wholly untypical, school in Beijing. A cross check with a 14 year old in Xi'an revealed basically the same pattern.
It must be stressed for China that these are city schools, and a rural one would reveal a substantially different pattern. But China's cities already contain hundreds of millions of people and the number will rise over several decades towards one billion. The daily timetable was the following - the ten minute gaps between lessons are break periods.
7.00 - 8.00 Exercise and private study
8.00 - 8.45 Lesson 1
8.55 - 9.40 Lesson 2
9.40 - 10.00 Break and discussion with teacher
10.00 - 10.20 Exercise
10.20 - 11.05 Lesson 3
11.15 - 12.00 Lesson 4
12.00 - 1.30 Lunch and break
1.30 - 2.15 Lesson 5
2.25 - 3.10 Lesson 6
3.20 - 4.05 Lesson 7
4.05 - 4.30 Exercise
4.30 - 5.30 Private study
6.00 - 9.00 Homework
Multiply that timetable in the future by several hundred million children, compare it to the far less intense educational ethic and drive in the US and Europe, and you already see why European and US societies have no chance in their competition with Asia. Average educational levels are already well above US and European standards in South Korea and Singapore. The contemporary Asian work and educational ethic is so superior to the average in Europe and the US that the relative decline of the later compared to Asia is already inevitable - even if it will take several decades for its full consequences to work through. The strength of Asia's key economies lies not simply in the fact that China invests over 40 per cent of its GDP, compared to under 20 per cent for the US and UK, but in the educational standards that are being set to complement that investment.
Of course China is starting, as regards the mass of the population, from a hugely lower base than the US and Europe - even if the standard statement remains that the Chinese primary school is the best run institution in the country. To take several hundred million Chinese children up to the educational level now seen in Singapore or South Korea is a work of very many decades. But the dynamic is already clear. The trajectory set for Chinese education is at a far higher level than that for the US or Europe.
In that child's school timetable, and its comparison to the US or UK, is the future of the world.
Sunday 13 July 2008
An insight from Asian airports
On a recent trip to India I had a meeting with a director of a leading Indian motor manufacturer. It gave many insights into relevant issues in the industry but the most striking was a much more general observation.
We were discussing - as is an inevitable topic of conversation with any foreign business figure - the deplorable state of Heathrow airport. This led to a discussion about the relative merits of various US airports which were considered preferable.
I remarked that I was suprised that he had not mentioned Singapore or Hong Kong, as these seemed to me superior even to the US airports he mentioned - or even Shanghai compared favourably to some he discussed. He replied: 'Well yes, of course, but you can't expect Asian standards in the US or Europe.'
Note the structure of the thought. He automatically considered the US and Europe on a lower standard of comparison than the most advanced Asian ones. Not that this applies, of course, to all Asian airports - Delhi or Mumbai themselves do not yet come up remotely to the best European or US standards. But he already internally judged that the highest levels set in Asia were on a far higher level than the US or Europe who had become 'poor cousins'. This from a leading business figure.
Thirty years ago such a view would have been inconceivable. Today few outside Asia understand it exists. But it confirms once again just how much globalisation is not a purely economic process. It will transform perceptions as well. Not only an economic but a cultural earthquake is developing.
We were discussing - as is an inevitable topic of conversation with any foreign business figure - the deplorable state of Heathrow airport. This led to a discussion about the relative merits of various US airports which were considered preferable.
I remarked that I was suprised that he had not mentioned Singapore or Hong Kong, as these seemed to me superior even to the US airports he mentioned - or even Shanghai compared favourably to some he discussed. He replied: 'Well yes, of course, but you can't expect Asian standards in the US or Europe.'
Note the structure of the thought. He automatically considered the US and Europe on a lower standard of comparison than the most advanced Asian ones. Not that this applies, of course, to all Asian airports - Delhi or Mumbai themselves do not yet come up remotely to the best European or US standards. But he already internally judged that the highest levels set in Asia were on a far higher level than the US or Europe who had become 'poor cousins'. This from a leading business figure.
Thirty years ago such a view would have been inconceivable. Today few outside Asia understand it exists. But it confirms once again just how much globalisation is not a purely economic process. It will transform perceptions as well. Not only an economic but a cultural earthquake is developing.
The Chinese Blogsphere
Richard Edelman has an extremely informative post on his blog regarding the state of the Blogsphere in China which deserves the widest possible circulation - as does one of the comments on it. They reflect the real situation in China - the relevant post is for 13 June. http://www.edelman.com/speak_up/blog/
Richard Edelman's post is as follows:
State of the Chinese Blogosphere
I am at Edelman’s annual leadership meeting in Shanghai. We just heard from a group of Chinese bloggers, including Raymond Zhou, Isaac Mao, Steven Lin, Tangos Chan, Sam Flemming and Adam Schokora - disclosure; Mr Schokora works for Edelman China. Here are some of the most salient points:
1) Social media in China has two constant themes: the rich/poor divide and nationalism. According to Mr. Zhou, there is tremendous risk in ignoring blogs with “anti-China feeling,” such as those prompted by Sharon Stone’s recent comment about the earthquake in Sichuan Province caused somehow by Chinese behavior in Tibet. “Christian Dior did exactly the right thing in distancing the company from her and even making up an apology for her.” He noted that Carrefour didn’t respond to false claims that they supported the Dalai Lama, which spread like wildfire across Bulletin Board Systems (BBS) until they reported by mainstream media. “By playing the victim, being passive in the face of attacks, the company allowed the venom to go away.”
2) The large mainstream media, including China Daily, People’s Daily and CCTV is “a one direction world,” said Mr. Mao. “But we are now in a many to many world. Even though my parents get most of their information from TV, I send them text messages via the cell phone, so the world has become less hierarchical.” There was a text message alleging that one of the owners of Carrefour was financing the Dalai Lama. Then each person has to forward the text message to ten people, otherwise, you are not patriot.
3) Bulletin Board Systems (BBS) is the dominant form of social media in China, noted Mr. Flemming. For example, 200,000 women posted 1 million messages last month on cosmetics and 300,000 people put up 5.5 million messages on autos, he stated. There are vertical BBS options such as Xcar. Mr Tangus said that smart companies are now making it easy to grab video content on their web sites that can easily be sent via BBS. Mr. Zhou added that BBS is becoming highly segmented; “there are now micro-hobbies within each hobby.”
4) Commercialism has made blogs quite sensational. Mr. Zhou suggested that “in a world where performance is based on the number of page views, bloggers tend not to be the best journalists.” He provided a hypothetical example of a BMW running onto the curb and hitting a pedestrian as a perfect blog post that would be put onto the front page of Sina.com because it plays to the stereotypes of the rich person. Mr. Mao said that mainstream media often gets story ideas from bloggers; he suggested that Beijing residents will likely complain on-line during the upcoming Olympic Games about the traffic or impolite tourists. “Social media will portray this as the non-harmonious Games.”
5) BBS and blogs are amplifiers of stories in mainstream media. “The angry youth of China made their voices heard on-line after the torch relay incident in Paris,” said Mr. Mao, then the mainstream media reflected that feeling. After the recent earthquake, most of the bloggers had to rely on the Government for information, particularly CCTV, said Mr. Chen. “Then in the relief stage, there was lots of BBS discussion, giving us a more comprehensive picture of what was happening.” The blogs and BBS helped to raise money for victims while also “serving as a place for public grieving, to post prayers for the dead.” For a special report on how the Chinese blogosphere covered the earthquake, go to CICdata.com.
6) The best Chinese bloggers are from mainstream media, said Mr. Zhou. “They use social media because they are not as closely regulated as in their regular jobs.” He cited the reporter from Xinhua who blogged continually from Sichuan Province during the visit of Premier Wen Jiabao to catalyze the relief effort. Mr. Lin believes that “bloggers consider themselves reporters now; they dig out stories.”
7) Companies are getting serious about digital spend in China. Mr. Flemming said that brands can achieve awareness through TV advertising but “to tap into consumer passions, you need to go on line.”
8) The Chinese and English blogospheres are quite closely connected, said Mr. Mao. Some of the prominent Chinese bloggers such as Tangos Chan blog in English.
9) As in the US, there is huge attention paid to celebrities in the on-line world, according to Mr. Schokora. “But most blogs are about people’s lives,” he said.
These bloggers were incredibly impressive, committed to change, convinced that they were part of a new China where individual expression and frank speaking will win. They love the idea that in Mr. Zhou’s words,”We have moved beyond the propaganda posters as the voice of the people. Now we have a platform for ordinary citizens to give their views.” They also relish the high level of involvement in social media; according to Mr. Flemming, “98% of Chinese with access to the Internet have contributed to blogs or BBS.” I would appreciate your views as always.
The comment with information which should be widely absorbed to understand the scale of internet use in China is by Adam Schokora.
http://www.edelman.com/speak_up/blog/archives/2008/06/state_of_the_ch.html#comments
Thanks for the post Richard. Great info.
Allow me share a few numbers to help put a bit of context around the Chinese digital / social media landscape.
- 235 million Internet users; the largest Internet user population in the world
- Nationwide penetration of Internet usage is still quite low, at about 15%; a sign of tremendous growth yet to come
- 75% of these 235 million users are urban residents and educated
- 80% of these 235 million users are between the ages of 15 – 35 years old
- 60+ million active blogs- 80+ million active participants on BSS forums (bulletin board system, i.e. online discussion forums)
- Of these 80+ million BBS users, 36.3% spend 1 - 3 hours a day reading/contributing to different forums; 44.7% spend 3 - 8 hours, and 15.1% spend 8+ hours; 60% will login to at least 3 BBS forums more than 3 times a week
- 3 billion registered BBS users (a single netizen can register to different forums multiple times)
- Chinese BBS forums experience 1.6 billion page views and 10 million new posts daily(!)
- 600+ million mobile phone subscribers (in Q1 of 2008, Chinese mobile phones users sent nearly 175 billion text messages)
- China is consistently adding 5 - 10 million new mobile phone subscribers a month[The above figures are extracted from the January 2008 results of the China Internet Network Information Center's (CNNIC: www.cnnic.net.cn/en/index) biannual survey of the Internet in China. Some figures have been adjusted upward to account for inevitable increases over the last 6 months. CNNIC's mid 2008 survey results will be published in the very near future. Watch CNNIC for the latest figures.]
Thanks,
AjS
Posted by: Adam Schokora at June 22, 2008 8:23 AM
Richard Edelman's post is as follows:
State of the Chinese Blogosphere
I am at Edelman’s annual leadership meeting in Shanghai. We just heard from a group of Chinese bloggers, including Raymond Zhou, Isaac Mao, Steven Lin, Tangos Chan, Sam Flemming and Adam Schokora - disclosure; Mr Schokora works for Edelman China. Here are some of the most salient points:
1) Social media in China has two constant themes: the rich/poor divide and nationalism. According to Mr. Zhou, there is tremendous risk in ignoring blogs with “anti-China feeling,” such as those prompted by Sharon Stone’s recent comment about the earthquake in Sichuan Province caused somehow by Chinese behavior in Tibet. “Christian Dior did exactly the right thing in distancing the company from her and even making up an apology for her.” He noted that Carrefour didn’t respond to false claims that they supported the Dalai Lama, which spread like wildfire across Bulletin Board Systems (BBS) until they reported by mainstream media. “By playing the victim, being passive in the face of attacks, the company allowed the venom to go away.”
2) The large mainstream media, including China Daily, People’s Daily and CCTV is “a one direction world,” said Mr. Mao. “But we are now in a many to many world. Even though my parents get most of their information from TV, I send them text messages via the cell phone, so the world has become less hierarchical.” There was a text message alleging that one of the owners of Carrefour was financing the Dalai Lama. Then each person has to forward the text message to ten people, otherwise, you are not patriot.
3) Bulletin Board Systems (BBS) is the dominant form of social media in China, noted Mr. Flemming. For example, 200,000 women posted 1 million messages last month on cosmetics and 300,000 people put up 5.5 million messages on autos, he stated. There are vertical BBS options such as Xcar. Mr Tangus said that smart companies are now making it easy to grab video content on their web sites that can easily be sent via BBS. Mr. Zhou added that BBS is becoming highly segmented; “there are now micro-hobbies within each hobby.”
4) Commercialism has made blogs quite sensational. Mr. Zhou suggested that “in a world where performance is based on the number of page views, bloggers tend not to be the best journalists.” He provided a hypothetical example of a BMW running onto the curb and hitting a pedestrian as a perfect blog post that would be put onto the front page of Sina.com because it plays to the stereotypes of the rich person. Mr. Mao said that mainstream media often gets story ideas from bloggers; he suggested that Beijing residents will likely complain on-line during the upcoming Olympic Games about the traffic or impolite tourists. “Social media will portray this as the non-harmonious Games.”
5) BBS and blogs are amplifiers of stories in mainstream media. “The angry youth of China made their voices heard on-line after the torch relay incident in Paris,” said Mr. Mao, then the mainstream media reflected that feeling. After the recent earthquake, most of the bloggers had to rely on the Government for information, particularly CCTV, said Mr. Chen. “Then in the relief stage, there was lots of BBS discussion, giving us a more comprehensive picture of what was happening.” The blogs and BBS helped to raise money for victims while also “serving as a place for public grieving, to post prayers for the dead.” For a special report on how the Chinese blogosphere covered the earthquake, go to CICdata.com.
6) The best Chinese bloggers are from mainstream media, said Mr. Zhou. “They use social media because they are not as closely regulated as in their regular jobs.” He cited the reporter from Xinhua who blogged continually from Sichuan Province during the visit of Premier Wen Jiabao to catalyze the relief effort. Mr. Lin believes that “bloggers consider themselves reporters now; they dig out stories.”
7) Companies are getting serious about digital spend in China. Mr. Flemming said that brands can achieve awareness through TV advertising but “to tap into consumer passions, you need to go on line.”
8) The Chinese and English blogospheres are quite closely connected, said Mr. Mao. Some of the prominent Chinese bloggers such as Tangos Chan blog in English.
9) As in the US, there is huge attention paid to celebrities in the on-line world, according to Mr. Schokora. “But most blogs are about people’s lives,” he said.
These bloggers were incredibly impressive, committed to change, convinced that they were part of a new China where individual expression and frank speaking will win. They love the idea that in Mr. Zhou’s words,”We have moved beyond the propaganda posters as the voice of the people. Now we have a platform for ordinary citizens to give their views.” They also relish the high level of involvement in social media; according to Mr. Flemming, “98% of Chinese with access to the Internet have contributed to blogs or BBS.” I would appreciate your views as always.
The comment with information which should be widely absorbed to understand the scale of internet use in China is by Adam Schokora.
http://www.edelman.com/speak_up/blog/archives/2008/06/state_of_the_ch.html#comments
Thanks for the post Richard. Great info.
Allow me share a few numbers to help put a bit of context around the Chinese digital / social media landscape.
- 235 million Internet users; the largest Internet user population in the world
- Nationwide penetration of Internet usage is still quite low, at about 15%; a sign of tremendous growth yet to come
- 75% of these 235 million users are urban residents and educated
- 80% of these 235 million users are between the ages of 15 – 35 years old
- 60+ million active blogs- 80+ million active participants on BSS forums (bulletin board system, i.e. online discussion forums)
- Of these 80+ million BBS users, 36.3% spend 1 - 3 hours a day reading/contributing to different forums; 44.7% spend 3 - 8 hours, and 15.1% spend 8+ hours; 60% will login to at least 3 BBS forums more than 3 times a week
- 3 billion registered BBS users (a single netizen can register to different forums multiple times)
- Chinese BBS forums experience 1.6 billion page views and 10 million new posts daily(!)
- 600+ million mobile phone subscribers (in Q1 of 2008, Chinese mobile phones users sent nearly 175 billion text messages)
- China is consistently adding 5 - 10 million new mobile phone subscribers a month[The above figures are extracted from the January 2008 results of the China Internet Network Information Center's (CNNIC: www.cnnic.net.cn/en/index) biannual survey of the Internet in China. Some figures have been adjusted upward to account for inevitable increases over the last 6 months. CNNIC's mid 2008 survey results will be published in the very near future. Watch CNNIC for the latest figures.]
Thanks,
AjS
Posted by: Adam Schokora at June 22, 2008 8:23 AM
Friday 11 July 2008
Asia's developing academic and cultural challenge
Most companies and commentators in the US and Europe, except at the very top, still greatly underestimate both the form and the scale of challenge that is coming not only from the BRIC economies but from Asia more generally.
To some extent the economic power of Asia is understood - although even here there is still frequent underestimation of the scale of the shift taking place. But the way in which this will progressively spread into other fields is still not adequately grasped. This process is only beginning but it will continue to deepen.
Fortune on 11 July therefore carries a particularly illuminating article on the effect that is beginning in the academic field.
http://postcards.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/07/11/business-schools-new-tests/
Linda Livingstone, dean of Pepperdine’s Graziadio School of Business and Management, notes in an interview the process that is beginning to occur in terms of salaries paid for recruitment of some academic staff:
'It used to be that students around the world, seeking a global business education, studied in the U.S. or Europe. Today, they sign up for MBA programs in China or India—or Abu Dhabi, Dubai or Qatar. “Hong Kong and Singapore are putting tremendous effort into their MBA programs,” Livingstone adds, “and hiring business faculty has become very competitive.” One professor she knows got an offer from a business school in Singapore for three times his U.S. salary.'
This concerns an academic area closest to business, MBAs, but sheer weight of money will make its way in the world. In the same way that, due to their dynamism, the Asian economies can outbid the US and Europe for oil they are able to outbid them for academic staff - greatly reinforcing their academic and cultural positions.
This process is only at its beginning and, except in Japan, it will take a whole period to raise the 'stock' of Asian academic excellence, including in this the facilities available for research, to the same level as the US and Europe. But a number of Asian governments are consciously preparing this process. One of the most groundbreaking pieces of research carried out anywhere in the last period was the 'cultural audit' carried out by Shanghai - which London under Ken Livingstone took as a model for its own research in the field.
http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/culture/docs/cultural-audit.pdf
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23451724-details/Ken%27s+move+to+boost+London+as+world+culture+capital/article.do
This audit evidently underlay a systematic plan by Shanghai to raise its academic and cultural investment over a prolonged period - with the short term focus being strengthening its position in creative industries. The conclusion of the audit was that to achieve this Shanghai must undertake large scale investment over a prolonged period. But China has entirely adequate resources for this.
In the cultural and academic fields, compared to the economic, the shift in favour of Asia is only just beginning but is consequences will be deep.
To some extent the economic power of Asia is understood - although even here there is still frequent underestimation of the scale of the shift taking place. But the way in which this will progressively spread into other fields is still not adequately grasped. This process is only beginning but it will continue to deepen.
Fortune on 11 July therefore carries a particularly illuminating article on the effect that is beginning in the academic field.
http://postcards.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/07/11/business-schools-new-tests/
Linda Livingstone, dean of Pepperdine’s Graziadio School of Business and Management, notes in an interview the process that is beginning to occur in terms of salaries paid for recruitment of some academic staff:
'It used to be that students around the world, seeking a global business education, studied in the U.S. or Europe. Today, they sign up for MBA programs in China or India—or Abu Dhabi, Dubai or Qatar. “Hong Kong and Singapore are putting tremendous effort into their MBA programs,” Livingstone adds, “and hiring business faculty has become very competitive.” One professor she knows got an offer from a business school in Singapore for three times his U.S. salary.'
This concerns an academic area closest to business, MBAs, but sheer weight of money will make its way in the world. In the same way that, due to their dynamism, the Asian economies can outbid the US and Europe for oil they are able to outbid them for academic staff - greatly reinforcing their academic and cultural positions.
This process is only at its beginning and, except in Japan, it will take a whole period to raise the 'stock' of Asian academic excellence, including in this the facilities available for research, to the same level as the US and Europe. But a number of Asian governments are consciously preparing this process. One of the most groundbreaking pieces of research carried out anywhere in the last period was the 'cultural audit' carried out by Shanghai - which London under Ken Livingstone took as a model for its own research in the field.
http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/culture/docs/cultural-audit.pdf
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23451724-details/Ken%27s+move+to+boost+London+as+world+culture+capital/article.do
This audit evidently underlay a systematic plan by Shanghai to raise its academic and cultural investment over a prolonged period - with the short term focus being strengthening its position in creative industries. The conclusion of the audit was that to achieve this Shanghai must undertake large scale investment over a prolonged period. But China has entirely adequate resources for this.
In the cultural and academic fields, compared to the economic, the shift in favour of Asia is only just beginning but is consequences will be deep.
Thursday 10 July 2008
China and India – the economic gap is widening, not narrowing
One of the most expensive mistakes that can be made in emerging markets is to confuse business and politics.
The political pages of newspapers may attempt to point business decisions in one direction when this is contrary to real business and economic fundamentals. In Russia in the 1990s, for example, even George Soros, as well as many other investors, lost large sums because they became involved in supporting people who were viewed favourably in political newspapers, instead of paying sufficient attention to these business fundamentals. In addition large amounts of time were wasted in forging links with figures who were totally peripheral to real developments – therefore failing to position companies to take advantages of key openings.
A somewhat similar mistake has been made over the last period in comparisons between India and China. There may be political reasons for preferring India to China, but this has led to the mistaken view that India may be catching up China economically, or may even be a better economic bet for the future. This is not true.
China is increasing its economic lead on India – the gap is widening, not narrowing. This is shown clearly in the macro-economic data – where China’s growth rate continues to exceed India’s , which necessarily means that the gap in GDP and overall market size is increasing. But it is also clearly seen at a company level in more detailed examination of data from the FT Global 500 whihch were considered in a previous post. It should be recalled that the FT Global 500 deals only with publicly quoted companies but it is sufficiently comprehensive, and the differences are of sufficient magnitude. to show the situation clearly. http://keytrendsinglobalisation.blogspot.com/2008/07/financial-times-global-500.html
China has almost three times as many companies in the FT Global 500, including Hong Kong, as India (35 compared to 13) and twice as many excluding Hong Kong (25 to 13). Market capitalisation of Chinese companies is over six times that of Indian companies - $2,569bn compared to $421bn. Turnover of Chinese companies in the Global 500 is six and a half times that of Indian companies.
Strikingly both Russia and Brazil continue to be stronger than India at the large company level. Market capitalisation of FT Global 500 companies is Russia $820bn, Brazil $621bn, India $421 bn. In terms of turnover the figure for Russian companies is $295bn, Brazilian $178bn, Indian $87bn.
Evidently, strategically, India is a more important market than either Russia or Brazil. India’s population is much larger than Brazil or Russia. Its growth rate is second only to China’s among the largest emerging markets. The Indian market is therefore immensely important. But China’s economic lead over India is still growing not decreasing.
The political pages of newspapers may attempt to point business decisions in one direction when this is contrary to real business and economic fundamentals. In Russia in the 1990s, for example, even George Soros, as well as many other investors, lost large sums because they became involved in supporting people who were viewed favourably in political newspapers, instead of paying sufficient attention to these business fundamentals. In addition large amounts of time were wasted in forging links with figures who were totally peripheral to real developments – therefore failing to position companies to take advantages of key openings.
A somewhat similar mistake has been made over the last period in comparisons between India and China. There may be political reasons for preferring India to China, but this has led to the mistaken view that India may be catching up China economically, or may even be a better economic bet for the future. This is not true.
China is increasing its economic lead on India – the gap is widening, not narrowing. This is shown clearly in the macro-economic data – where China’s growth rate continues to exceed India’s , which necessarily means that the gap in GDP and overall market size is increasing. But it is also clearly seen at a company level in more detailed examination of data from the FT Global 500 whihch were considered in a previous post. It should be recalled that the FT Global 500 deals only with publicly quoted companies but it is sufficiently comprehensive, and the differences are of sufficient magnitude. to show the situation clearly. http://keytrendsinglobalisation.blogspot.com/2008/07/financial-times-global-500.html
China has almost three times as many companies in the FT Global 500, including Hong Kong, as India (35 compared to 13) and twice as many excluding Hong Kong (25 to 13). Market capitalisation of Chinese companies is over six times that of Indian companies - $2,569bn compared to $421bn. Turnover of Chinese companies in the Global 500 is six and a half times that of Indian companies.
Strikingly both Russia and Brazil continue to be stronger than India at the large company level. Market capitalisation of FT Global 500 companies is Russia $820bn, Brazil $621bn, India $421 bn. In terms of turnover the figure for Russian companies is $295bn, Brazilian $178bn, Indian $87bn.
Evidently, strategically, India is a more important market than either Russia or Brazil. India’s population is much larger than Brazil or Russia. Its growth rate is second only to China’s among the largest emerging markets. The Indian market is therefore immensely important. But China’s economic lead over India is still growing not decreasing.
Sunday 6 July 2008
Key trends in the Financial Times Global 500
As always the publication of the Financial Times Global 500 conveys a great deal of information about the world's most important publicly quoted companies - FT rankings are by stockmarket capitalisation. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e01aab98-40c9-11dd-bd48-0000779fd2ac.html
However the presentation of the material by the FT does not bring out some of the most important trends as a comparison to 1996 is carried out in terms of individual countries. Reorganisation and aggregation of the data shows key trends more clearly.
The most striking trend is the sharp decline in the weight of US and Japanese companies.
In 1996 US companies accounted for 40.6 per cent of the total number of Global 500 companies, and by 2008 this had declined to 33.8 per cent. The decline of Japanese companies was even sharper from 22.0 per cent to 7.8 per cent. A smaller decline took place for the UK.
Unsurprisingly the largest gainers were BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) companies. These rose from 3.2 per cent of the total in 1996 to 14.4 per cent in 2008.
But Eurozone based companies also advanced significantly from 13.4 per cent to 19.8 per cent of the companies in the same period.
The most striking trend is the sharp decline in the weight of US and Japanese companies.
In 1996 US companies accounted for 40.6 per cent of the total number of Global 500 companies, and by 2008 this had declined to 33.8 per cent. The decline of Japanese companies was even sharper from 22.0 per cent to 7.8 per cent. A smaller decline took place for the UK.
Unsurprisingly the largest gainers were BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) companies. These rose from 3.2 per cent of the total in 1996 to 14.4 per cent in 2008.
But Eurozone based companies also advanced significantly from 13.4 per cent to 19.8 per cent of the companies in the same period.
The weight of the traditional bloc of US, Japanese and UK companies declined from 71.8 per cent of the total to 48.6 per cent.
These shifts are magnified by the decline in the value of the dollar, but that in turn partially reflects overvaluation of the dollar in the previous period.
At the level of national economies the shift in the balance of the world economy is well recognised - the majority of world GDP growth last year being in China, India and Russia, and in terms of dollar devaluation the Eurozone, in current exchange rates, became the world's largest economic unit following the decline of the dollar. But this new data also shows strikingly the shifts in terms of companies.
Saturday 5 July 2008
Tourism resists the international recession
Highly interesting figures have been produced on the strong performance of world tourism in the early part of 2008 from the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) despite the overall international economic slowdown. http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=2532&idioma=E
These figures are rooted in the well established trend that as personal incomes rise leisure services, of which tourism is a major part, are one of the few sectors of expenditure on which customers spend not only more in absolute terms but an increasing proportion of their income - clothing, health and education are others (although in many countries the latter two are in large part provided by the state).
Promotion of tourism, and suitable physical infrastructure for tourism, therefore has to be an increasing part of county and city economic programmes. However promotion of many tourism in a number of countries remains amateurish -an exception among emerging economies is India's 'Incredible India' campaign which is of extremely high quality. China in contrast continues to drastically underperform in professionalism of tourism promotion and this has doubtless contributed to lower than anticipated visitor numbers to Beijing for the Olympic Games.
World tourism rose by around 5 per cent in the first four months of 2008 compared to the same period in the previous year - one per cent above the long term trend. This was despite the pressures to slowdown in the world economy as a whole. According to UNWTO:
'All sub-regions posted positive results in the first months of the year. Growth was fastest in the Middle East, North-East and South Asia, and Central and South America. North-America is on track for a clearly positive year thanks to the strong inbound travel to the USA, while arrivals to the Caribbean started to rebound well on last year’s stagnant results. Growth was more modest in Europe, with best performances coming from Southern and Mediterranean destinations.A variety of destination countries all around the globe reported double-digit growth rates in the first three to five months of 2008, among which in Asia and the Pacific: China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Macao (China), Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Fiji, India and Nepal; in the Americas: the USA, Cuba, Jamaica, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Chile, Peru and Uruguay; in Europe: Sweden, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Israel, Malta, Montenegro and Turkey; and in Africa and the Middle East: Bahrain, Egypt and Morocco.
'The anticipated softening of international tourism growth in 2008, yet still clearly at a positive level, follows four historically strong years. Between 2004 and 2007 international tourism grew at an extraordinary above average rate of 7 per cent a year, boosted by a buoyant world economy and pent-up demand after the challenges in 2001-2003... though consumer confidence indices show an increasing degree of uncertainty, international tourism has proven to be resilient in similar circumstances in the past and able to cope with various types of shocks, including security threats, geopolitical tensions or natural and man-made crisis.Accounting for these factors, coupled with a slower but still positive economic growth, international tourism is as yet expected to keep growing at a solid pace in the mid-term, broadly in line with UNWTO’s Tourism 2020 Vision forecast long-term growth rate of about 4 per cent.'
Within that framework, as would be expected the strongest tourism growth involves emerging market economies - although the top spenders in absolute terms remain the US, Germany, France and the UK. China overtook Japan and Russia overtook South Korea to rank ninth. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12da54a2-49e4-11dd-891a-000077b07658.html
The UNWTO notes:
http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=2462&idioma=E
'International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8 per cent over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries.
'Tourism is a crucial contributor to these countries’ income - up to 70 per cent for the world’s poorest countries.
Development financing from global Trade; Poverty Alleviation and Climate Response should recognize the long term potential of tourism as a sustainable growth engine.
'With international travellers projected to almost double by 2020, the most significant increases are expected to take place in markets like China, India and destinations in South-East Asia. The Gulf States and emerging Eastern Europe complete this picture, followed by the Latin American and finally African markets.Many of these are becoming important outbound markets, backed by growing middle classes on the one hand, and liberalising policies promoting mobility on the other. Chinese tourists already spent about US$ 30 billion abroad in 2007, according to UNWTO figures.The domestic travel potential of emerging markets – in 2006 China registered 1.6 billion trips and India 461 million - is a further proof of their long term importance for international tourism.Between 1996 and 2006, international tourism in developing countries expanded by 6 per cent as a whole, by 9 per cent for Least Developed Countries, and 8 per cent for other low and lower-middle income economies. ' http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=2462&idioma=E
These figures are rooted in the well established trend that as personal incomes rise leisure services, of which tourism is a major part, are one of the few sectors of expenditure on which customers spend not only more in absolute terms but an increasing proportion of their income - clothing, health and education are others (although in many countries the latter two are in large part provided by the state).
Promotion of tourism, and suitable physical infrastructure for tourism, therefore has to be an increasing part of county and city economic programmes. However promotion of many tourism in a number of countries remains amateurish -an exception among emerging economies is India's 'Incredible India' campaign which is of extremely high quality. China in contrast continues to drastically underperform in professionalism of tourism promotion and this has doubtless contributed to lower than anticipated visitor numbers to Beijing for the Olympic Games.
World tourism rose by around 5 per cent in the first four months of 2008 compared to the same period in the previous year - one per cent above the long term trend. This was despite the pressures to slowdown in the world economy as a whole. According to UNWTO:
'All sub-regions posted positive results in the first months of the year. Growth was fastest in the Middle East, North-East and South Asia, and Central and South America. North-America is on track for a clearly positive year thanks to the strong inbound travel to the USA, while arrivals to the Caribbean started to rebound well on last year’s stagnant results. Growth was more modest in Europe, with best performances coming from Southern and Mediterranean destinations.A variety of destination countries all around the globe reported double-digit growth rates in the first three to five months of 2008, among which in Asia and the Pacific: China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Macao (China), Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Fiji, India and Nepal; in the Americas: the USA, Cuba, Jamaica, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Chile, Peru and Uruguay; in Europe: Sweden, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Israel, Malta, Montenegro and Turkey; and in Africa and the Middle East: Bahrain, Egypt and Morocco.
'The anticipated softening of international tourism growth in 2008, yet still clearly at a positive level, follows four historically strong years. Between 2004 and 2007 international tourism grew at an extraordinary above average rate of 7 per cent a year, boosted by a buoyant world economy and pent-up demand after the challenges in 2001-2003... though consumer confidence indices show an increasing degree of uncertainty, international tourism has proven to be resilient in similar circumstances in the past and able to cope with various types of shocks, including security threats, geopolitical tensions or natural and man-made crisis.Accounting for these factors, coupled with a slower but still positive economic growth, international tourism is as yet expected to keep growing at a solid pace in the mid-term, broadly in line with UNWTO’s Tourism 2020 Vision forecast long-term growth rate of about 4 per cent.'
Within that framework, as would be expected the strongest tourism growth involves emerging market economies - although the top spenders in absolute terms remain the US, Germany, France and the UK. China overtook Japan and Russia overtook South Korea to rank ninth. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12da54a2-49e4-11dd-891a-000077b07658.html
The UNWTO notes:
http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=2462&idioma=E
'International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8 per cent over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries.
'Tourism is a crucial contributor to these countries’ income - up to 70 per cent for the world’s poorest countries.
Development financing from global Trade; Poverty Alleviation and Climate Response should recognize the long term potential of tourism as a sustainable growth engine.
'With international travellers projected to almost double by 2020, the most significant increases are expected to take place in markets like China, India and destinations in South-East Asia. The Gulf States and emerging Eastern Europe complete this picture, followed by the Latin American and finally African markets.Many of these are becoming important outbound markets, backed by growing middle classes on the one hand, and liberalising policies promoting mobility on the other. Chinese tourists already spent about US$ 30 billion abroad in 2007, according to UNWTO figures.The domestic travel potential of emerging markets – in 2006 China registered 1.6 billion trips and India 461 million - is a further proof of their long term importance for international tourism.Between 1996 and 2006, international tourism in developing countries expanded by 6 per cent as a whole, by 9 per cent for Least Developed Countries, and 8 per cent for other low and lower-middle income economies. ' http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=2462&idioma=E
Tuesday 1 July 2008
Globalisation and the creation of international financial centres
The rise of a limited number of ‘international financial super cities’ is a not an accidental but a necessary phenomenon in the modern globalised world economy. The two most striking examples of this development are London and New York – the world’s two largest international financial and business service centres.
Tokyo had the opportunity, in terms of the depths of its capital markets, to develop as an international financial centre to fully match New York or London. But it failed to do so due to mistakes in policy that will be examined in future posts. The result has been to create a space for an Asian financial centre to rival New York or London. The competition to settle which this will be is not yet resolved. The Chinese government is encouraging a number of its cities to develop projects to become such a centre. The objective possibilities of various Asian cities to become such a centre will be considered subsequently.
The similarities of New York and London illustrate that certain features of the development of an international financial centre are not accidental but intrinsic to their its nature. Their advantages compared to rivals will be considered.
A crucial feature is that while globalisation is rooted in the economy its effects cannot be confined to the economy. Any concept that countries will trade with each other more, and invest in each other’s countries more, but everything else will remain the same is entirely unrealistic and will decisively weaken the attempt to create a global financial centre. Globalisation has not only economic but major social, cultural and environmental consequences that an international financial centre must prepare for.
One of the key strengths of London compared to Paris in the last period for example was that Paris's attitude to international companies was 'your money is very welcome but please leave your culture behind you.' London, in addition to the much greater strength of its financial markets, adopted the approach 'your money is certainly very welcome and we assume you are going to bring your culture with you - which will help make our city more creative and dynamic.'
The cutting edge which London acquired in creative industries and culture, as well as its success in winning the Olympic Games, followed from that approach.
Tokyo had the opportunity, in terms of the depths of its capital markets, to develop as an international financial centre to fully match New York or London. But it failed to do so due to mistakes in policy that will be examined in future posts. The result has been to create a space for an Asian financial centre to rival New York or London. The competition to settle which this will be is not yet resolved. The Chinese government is encouraging a number of its cities to develop projects to become such a centre. The objective possibilities of various Asian cities to become such a centre will be considered subsequently.
The similarities of New York and London illustrate that certain features of the development of an international financial centre are not accidental but intrinsic to their its nature. Their advantages compared to rivals will be considered.
A crucial feature is that while globalisation is rooted in the economy its effects cannot be confined to the economy. Any concept that countries will trade with each other more, and invest in each other’s countries more, but everything else will remain the same is entirely unrealistic and will decisively weaken the attempt to create a global financial centre. Globalisation has not only economic but major social, cultural and environmental consequences that an international financial centre must prepare for.
One of the key strengths of London compared to Paris in the last period for example was that Paris's attitude to international companies was 'your money is very welcome but please leave your culture behind you.' London, in addition to the much greater strength of its financial markets, adopted the approach 'your money is certainly very welcome and we assume you are going to bring your culture with you - which will help make our city more creative and dynamic.'
The cutting edge which London acquired in creative industries and culture, as well as its success in winning the Olympic Games, followed from that approach.
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